I’ve relied on fintech intuition (“fintuition”) for predictions that have come true at a good rate. In my 2024 review of over-engineered takes and my predictions, I went 6/7 or ~86% for 2024. With the much-needed confidence of beginner’s luck, I was one of the first to predict Chime’s 2025 IPO.

Of course, it wasn’t clear that my Chime IPO prediction would come true. On April 1st, Tariff Day forced several fintechs to delay their IPO plans. That day, I claimed that rather than a permanent halting of their IPO, we’d see a delay until Q3 or Q4 2025, especially if markets improved and tariff actions were reversed. That’s because Chime’s financial performance is outsized in Q1 2025 as their users get and spend tax refunds. A May IPO would allow them to report only full year 2024 financials on their S1 and have their first reported quarter be a strong Q1. This tried-and-true strategy was the same one we used in the majority of fundraising rounds when Chime was a hyper-growth private company.

By May 8th, despite a stock market rebound and the administration’s efforts to walk back the tariffs globally, it didn’t seem like the administration would be able to counter China’s asks. Still, I argued that given some Q1 tax refund spend had shifted to Q2 and MyPay growth could offset the normal Q2 revenue slump, Chime might file within 1-2 months with an IPO by Aug-25 at the latest.

After the surprise trade deal announced on May 11th, I remarked on May 13th that Chime could file its IPO docs publicly by May 14th, 2025 without updating its financials from the original registration statement, just two days later.

On the same day, Chime filed its S1 publicly, setting the stage for a historic IPO in the window I set up with an IPO date from May to August 2025. As predicted, they filed with 2024 audited financials but provided an unaudited look at another strong Q1-25, likely because they expect Q2-25 to be even higher so they’ll have two great reported quarters, just as I had thought.

There’s a lot to digest in the Chime S1 and I’m reserving my thoughts for later when the dust settles to add to the discourse. There are already some great takes from fintech nerds that I’d check out:

• Nick Madrid, a former Chimer from The Free Toaster, comments on Chime’s ARPAM flywheel.

• Zu Daya, from Strategic Finance Careers, discusses the metrics and proposes a potential valuation range.

• Simon Taylor from Fintech Brainfood explains the significance of owning the primary financial relationship. 

• CJ Gustafson’s Mostly Metrics runs the most detailed S1 breakdown available, supported by the Run The Numbers interview of Chime CFO Matt Newcomb.

• Jason Mikula from Fintech Business Weekly covers their marketing metrics and provides another view on valuation.

For now, here’s my over-engineered take on Chime’s Q2-25 performance: 

We know that IRS filings delayed tax refunds that normally fall in Feb/Mar to April. We saw that CashApp’s recent shareholder letter noted tariff uncertainty led to a Q1 spend pullback shifting to April. As a result, we’ll see spillover spend boosting Q2-25 interchange revenue.

We also know that Dave and other companies with short-term lending products outperformed in Q1-25, so MyPay will benefit from the same tailwinds. MyPay will dominate the topline growth story (but struggle on the bottom line), boosted by new member acquisition from the IPO brand play of a household consumer brand.

Q2-25 should thus give us strong topline revenue, great new member acquisition but perhaps a narrowing operating profit margin as the relatively lower margin MyPay offsets the otherwise SaaS-like interchange profit margins.

Let’s see if my fintuition holds true for Chime earnings and beyond.